AGP Executive Report

Energy Costs: The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina approved a 12% wholesale natural-gas price increase, effective Oct. 1. It is the fourth hike this year, bringing Sarajevo’s cumulative rise to about 31%. Trade: BiH exports rose 6.3% in the first nine months, but imports climbed 8.6%, leaving a deficit above 10.7 billion marks. Weather Alerts: Jablanica warned residents of heavy rain and possible flooding, with up to 120 liters of precipitation per square meter forecast in parts of Herzegovina. Regional Energy: Serbia says Hungary’s MOL has agreed to buy the Russian majority stake in oil company NIS, but MOL says there are no new developments; any deal would need competition approval in BiH and Serbia. Missing Children: The Federation government tasked officials with developing a “Child Alert BH” system, with a working group due to propose an operating model within three months. Connectivity: Starlink has opened pre-orders in BiH, offering a potential internet option for remote and mountainous areas; activation will depend on local network availability.

Energy Deal: Hungary’s MOL has signed an agreement to buy the Russian-held majority stake in Serbia’s NIS oil company. The sale needs competition approvals in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia; Serbia says it will raise its stake from 30% to 35%. Serbian Election: Bosnia’s Council of Ministers has approved voting for Serbian citizens at 27 locations in BiH on October 25. The vote comes amid reports that Republika Srpska authorities backed Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić and Trump-linked advisers attended an SNSD rally. Federal Investigations: Police searched offices at the Federation Railways and the Federal Transport Ministry over suspected abuse of office; no arrests were planned. Child Safety: The Federation government backed further work on a “Child Alert BH” system to speed up searches for missing children. Business Support: Croatia has opened a €2.9 million grant programme for business infrastructure projects in BiH, with awards of €50,000 to €290,000.

Serbian Vote in BiH: The Council of Ministers approved Serbia’s request to open polling stations at 27 locations in Bosnia and Herzegovina for its October 25 parliamentary election, easing a dispute that had prompted Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković to warn of diplomatic consequences if voting went ahead without consent. Election Deadlock: An analysis of BiH’s recent election points to record-low turnout of about 40 percent, nationalist parties’ gains and a difficult path to government formation, with SNSD and HDZ leaders saying they will not govern without each other. Historical Memory: The Sarajevo Memorial Center condemned billboards in East Sarajevo accusing Alija Izetbegović of crimes, calling them an attempt to distort history. Investigations and Courts: Federal police searched the FBiH Railways and Transport Ministry over suspected abuse of office; separately, the Court of BiH acquitted former OSA chief Osman Mehmedagić, finding the indictment did not sufficiently detail the alleged conduct. Border Security: BiH Border Police stopped the suspected smuggling of seven foreign nationals near Velika Kladuša.

Election Tensions: Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković warned that Bosnia and Herzegovina could send Serbian embassy staff home if Serbia organizes voting in the country without approval. Political Climate: Billboards accusing Alija Izetbegović of crimes against Serbs appeared across East Sarajevo; the city’s mayor praised them. An analysis also argues that Washington’s concessions to Milorad Dodik could strengthen Moscow’s influence. Vote Counts: Bosnia’s election commission ordered control counts at 89 polling stations, while ballots are being recounted at Sarajevo’s Zetra Hall and voters returned to the polls at one Brčko District station. Environment: A proposed hydropower project threatens to significantly alter the Neretva River, raising concerns about lasting damage to the iconic waterway.

Press Freedom: BH Journalists condemned Milorad Dodik for insulting BHRT reporter Vladimir Šušak and ordering his microphone removed after he questioned Republika Srpska’s prime minister about coal purchases for the Gacko power plant. Energy and U.S. Ties: Federation Prime Minister Nermin Nikšić and U.S. chargé d’affaires John Ginkel reaffirmed support for the South Gas Interconnection, alongside talks on investment and the business climate. Justice: Bosnia’s state court confirmed an indictment over the alleged arson and vandalism of religious symbols in Medjugorje; the accused is presumed innocent. Security: Border Police stopped an attempt to smuggle five Turkish nationals near Posušje. Election Oversight: The Central Election Commission ordered control counts at 89 polling stations, while repeat voting took place at a Brčko District polling station. Culture and Tourism: Sarajevo is offering airline subsidies to attract routes and a carrier base in 2027; the city airport also recorded its busiest September. Commemoration: Bosnia marked 23 years since the death of its first president, Alija Izetbegović.

Election Oversight: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s election commission has begun a manual recount at Sarajevo’s Zetra Hall after finding discrepancies of more than 2% between ballots cast and voter turnout at some polling stations. Political Scrutiny: US lawmakers want President Donald Trump to explain whether his advisers’ paid work for Republika Srpska authorities influenced the October 4 election, including advice on voting machines. War-Crimes Memory: Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković told an OIC meeting that Ratko Mladić’s funeral with military honors in Belgrade amounted to public rehabilitation of a man convicted of genocide. Pay and Living Costs: Newly elected representatives could earn 3,500–8,500 BAM a month, while many workers earn about 1,300 BAM and struggle to cover basic expenses. Environment: A hydropower scheme on the Neretva risks serious damage across Bosnia and into Croatia, prompting calls for stronger cooperation between the entities. Border Security: Bosnia and Montenegro have agreed to continue joint patrols to tackle illegal migration and cross-border crime.

War Crimes and Memory: Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković told OIC counterparts that Ratko Mladić’s funeral with military honors in Belgrade amounted to public rehabilitation of a man convicted of genocide. Election Scrutiny: US lawmakers have asked President Donald Trump whether his advisers’ paid work for Republika Srpska helped tilt Bosnia’s election in a pro-Russia direction. Regional Influence: BIRN reports Serbia’s Foreign Ministry awarded more than €250,000 over three years to diaspora groups in Bosnia and the region, including organizations that support the ruling SNS or promote right-wing views. Election Results: Bosnia’s election commission held repeat voting at one Brčko polling station and ordered control counts at 89 others, as parties discuss government formation. Economy: Bosnia’s egg export value rose 23% in the first eight months of the year, reaching 15.16 million marka, though producers say EU market restrictions limit further growth.

Election Scrutiny: Bosnia’s election commission ordered manual checks at 89 polling stations after finding discrepancies between scanned ballots and voter turnout. As government talks loom, SNSD leader Milorad Dodik and HDZ BiH chief Dragan Čović say their parties remain key partners. Dodik Lobbying: U.S. media are probing Republika Srpska’s lobbying network, its payments and links to figures close to President Donald Trump; Bosnia’s foreign minister has also raised concerns about the lobbying. Egg Exports: BiH’s egg exports rose 23% in value to 15.16 million KM in the first eight months of the year, but producers say they cannot export Class A table eggs to the EU. Sarajevo Siege Inquiry: Austria’s Justice Ministry is reviewing whether to indict two citizens over alleged “Sarajevo Safari” sniper attacks on civilians during the siege. Military Readiness: More than 1,200 BiH and NATO personnel are set to take part in the Armed Forces’ Immediate Response 26 exercise at Manjača, testing units’ readiness and interoperability.

Election Scrutiny: Bosnia’s election commission ordered manual checks at 89 polling stations after ballot scans showed discrepancies between turnout and ballots cast. Government Formation: HDZ BiH leader Dragan Čović says coalition talks will intensify once official results are confirmed, as delays also put €374 million in EU funding at risk. War Crimes Accountability: Austrian authorities are reviewing whether to indict two citizens over alleged “Sarajevo Safari” sniper attacks on civilians during the siege. Defence: More than 1,200 Bosnian armed forces members and NATO personnel will take part in the “Immediate Response 26” exercise, testing readiness and cooperation with NATO. Regional Tensions: Flags glorifying convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić appeared at Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s election rally.

Election Oversight: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Central Election Commission has ordered manual checks at 89 polling stations after electronic results showed discrepancies between ballots and voter turnout. War Crimes Investigation: Austria’s Justice Ministry is reviewing whether to indict two citizens over alleged sniper attacks on civilians during the siege of Sarajevo; prosecutors have been investigating the “Sarajevo Safari” allegations since April. Croatia’s Aid Plan: Bosnia is named a programmatic partner in Croatia’s development and humanitarian aid plan through 2030, with priorities including education, healthcare and democratic institutions. US Engagement: Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Dick Durbin visited Bosnia, met senior officials and paid tribute to Srebrenica genocide victims at Potocari. Government and Economy: The post-election government formation remains uncertain, while Bosnia risks losing €374 million from the EU Growth Plan if it misses a deadline; the IMF has also warned of slower growth and rising inflation.

Republika Srpska: Željka Cvijanović says she shares some positions with HDZ BiH’s Darijana Filipović but is not forming an alliance. Milorad Dodik, meanwhile, proposes a new RS constitution by January 9, including naming Banja Luka the capital and changing the Council of Peoples’ role. Government and EU Path: Government formation remains uncertain as Bosnia risks losing nearly €374 million in EU Growth Plan funding. EU and NATO officials are pressing for faster reforms and a functioning government. War Crimes: A Belgrade court again acquitted Milenko Karlica over the 1992 displacement of civilians from villages in Bosanski Novi. The Humanitarian Law Center criticized the court’s description of the removal of women and children as a rescue operation. Foreign Lobbying: Reports of US political consultants advising RS leaders and public funds going to lobbyists have prompted calls for greater transparency, amid claims of a secession-focused campaign. Economy: The Federation’s average net monthly salary was 1,708 KM in August, down 2.8% from July but up 7.1% year over year. Football: FIFA plans to revise its disciplinary rules after the Folarin Balogun suspension row, which followed his red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina at the World Cup.

Republika Srpska: Milorad Dodik says he wants a new RS constitution by January 9, including naming Banja Luka the capital and changing the Council of Peoples’ role. Critics warn any changes must comply with Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitution and human-rights standards. Government Formation: Defense Minister Zukan Helez is calling for a broad state-level coalition, including the SDA, while party negotiations continue after the election. War Crimes: A Belgrade court acquitted Milenko Karlica over the forced displacement of civilians from villages in Bosanski Novi in 1992. The Humanitarian Law Fund criticized the court’s characterization of moving women and children as a rescue operation. EU Path: Bosnia risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan as the reform deadline passes; the IMF also expects slower growth and rising inflation. Security: The Armed Forces have completed their first drone-operator training and can now train operators independently. Football: FIFA plans to amend its disciplinary rules after U.S. player Folarin Balogun’s red-card suspension was lifted following his sending-off against Bosnia at the World Cup.

Accountability: The Federation Supreme Court barred Development Minister Vojin Mijatović from office while he and others face charges over alleged favoritism in nearly 1 million KM in grants. The case has not gone to trial. Washington–RS ties: A photo of Katie Wiles, daughter of US Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, with Republika Srpska Interior Minister Željko Budimir has renewed scrutiny of lobbying ties. Her firm says she visited on business and did not discuss RS with US officials. Security: A Bosnian arms dealer was sentenced to five years in US prison for trying to broker a North Korean missile purchase. Government and EU funds: Coalition talks are looming after the elections, while Bosnia risks losing nearly €374 million from the EU Growth Plan if it misses reform deadlines. The EU has separately granted €1 million to improve customs and border operations. Football: FIFA is moving to make red-card suspensions automatic after overturning US forward Folarin Balogun’s ban for a foul on Bosnia’s Tarik Muharemović.

Arms Case: A U.S. court sentenced Bosnian arms dealer Sasa Micev to five years in prison for trying to broker the purchase of North Korean shoulder-fired missiles. Government & EU Funding: Coalition talks continue after Bosnia’s elections, while the expired Growth Plan deadline puts €374 million in EU funding at risk. Dodik Lobbying: Bosnia has asked Washington to examine lobbying tied to Bosnian Serb leaders, as disclosures about payments to U.S. advisers fuel scrutiny of Republika Srpska’s foreign ties. Security: BiH’s armed forces will face a major NATO-standard evaluation next week; Belarus also joined a Dayton arms-verification activity in Serbia. World Cup Rules: FIFA plans to tighten disciplinary rules after overturning Folarin Balogun’s suspension for a red card against Bosnia’s Tarik Muharemovic.

Heritage: Archaeologists have uncovered 23 fourth-century graves near Livno, including pottery, jewelry and a coin bearing Emperor Constantine I’s image. EU Funding: Bosnia and Herzegovina risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan if it misses reform deadlines, while the EU has granted €1 million to improve customs and border operations. Government Talks: Parties are bargaining over post-election coalitions, with disputes over partners threatening to delay formation of a new government. Lobbying Scrutiny: Disclosures show Republika Srpska paid $65,000 to US lawyer Eugene Kontorovich, who has backed Milorad Dodik; critics question the transparency and results of public spending on lobbying. Security: Four people were arrested in a crackdown on a suspected human-smuggling ring. The Armed Forces will also hold a major NATO-standard evaluation exercise next week. Sarajevo Air Quality: The canton has allocated one million marks to help businesses replace solid-fuel heating systems.

Government Formation: Post-election coalition talks are under way, but no majority has been secured. Milorad Dodik remains central to negotiations despite being barred from public office, while diaspora ballots could still affect the results. EU Funding: Bosnia and Herzegovina risks losing €373.9 million from the EU Growth Plan if it misses the December 31 reform deadline; a chief EU negotiator has yet to be appointed and key laws remain pending. Lobbying Scrutiny: Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković has asked Washington to examine Republika Srpska’s US lobbying, warning public funds may be backing efforts that threaten Bosnia’s unity. He says Saudi Arabia has not endorsed secession claims made by the lobbyists. Economy: The IMF forecasts slower growth of 2.3% this year and inflation rising to 5%. War Crimes Legacy: Montenegro’s parliament rejected a bid to remove speaker Andrija Mandić over his condolences to Ratko Mladić’s family; Mladić was convicted of genocide and other crimes in the Bosnian war.